Field Poll shows four of five upcoming state bond measures passing

By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

July 28, 2006

California voters this November will be asked to decide the fate of five extremely large infrastructure bond proposals whose expenditures for a variety of projects in the aggregate would total $42.6 billion.

Four of the bonds, Props. 1B, 1C, 1D and 1E were placed on the ballot by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and the legislature. A fifth bond measure, Prop. 84, qualified for the ballot through a separate voter signature gathering campaign. Schwarzenegger has since announced his support for Prop. 84.

In its latest statewide survey of Californians likely to vote in the November general election, The Field Poll updated voter preferences regarding each of the bond proposals. The survey completed last week finds voters initially favoring four of the five bond proposals, although not by overwhelming margins.

Voter dispositions

The largest of the bond issues, amounting to $19.9 billion, is Proposition 1B, entitled "Highway Safety, Traffic Reduction, Air Quality and Port Security," and it is currently receiving the greatest level of support from voters. Prop. 1B is favored by a two to one margin (54% to 27%). While the margin in favor is quite large, its current 27-point plurality is a little smaller than a 33-point plurality found in a May Field Poll survey.

The second largest bond, $10.4 billion, is Proposition 1D, entitled "Kindergarten through University Public Education Facilities." The current division of sentiment on Prop. 1D is 48% Yes and 37% No, similar to what it was last May.

The next largest bond is the $5.4 billion Prop. 84, which was placed on the ballot by a variety of environment groups and is labeled "Water Quality, Safety and Supply, Flood Control, National Resource Protection and Parke Improvement." Currently voters favor it by an 18-point margin, 49% Yes and 31% No, and 20% are undecided.

Next in size is the $4.1 billion Prop. 1E, the "Disaster Preparedness and Flood Protection" bond. The Yes side on 1E is now fourteen points ahead (47% to 33%), but the margin in favor of this proposal was greater in May (58% to 25%).

The smallest of the five bonds is Proposition 1C and calls for spending $2.8 billion for "Housing and Emergency Shelter." Last May voters were evenly divided on Prop. 1C - 39% Yes and 38% No. Now the No side is ahead 42% to 33%.

Analyzing the vote preferences by party reveals that Democrats and non-partisans are heavily in favor of each of the five bond proposals. However, a plurality of GOPers oppose each of the bond proposals except for Prop. 1B, where they divide evenly.

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