Preliminary Maps of November's Ballot measures

By Marc Salomon

December 6, 2007

The Department of Elections has gone to court to secure an extension from the Secretary of State from the statutory 28-day requirement to produce a final statement of votes suitable for certification by the Board of Supervisors. They have provided a preliminary statement of votes which has been parsed to provide these maps. Once final data are available, a definitive mapset will be produced.

How to read the maps

Cooler colors are <= 50%, warmer colors are > 50%

Cooler colors run from dark to light blue through dark green to light green.
Warmer colors run from yellow to orange and through red to dark red.

Where light green and light yellow come together is the 50% boundary. Since the interval between 40% and 60% is particularly interesting, the lighter green and lighter yellow intervals are in increments of 5% around the middle.

This scheme can be difficult to grasp but the difficulty is overcome by the fact that it is able to present both detail on the swing voters and the full extent of the extremes.

Warmer colors are shades of yes, cooler colors are shades of no.

Prop A - MUNI Reform

YES: 78,209, 55.49%
NO: 62,733, 44.51%

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

Prop B - Limit Holdover Appointments

YES: 95,799, 71.21%
NO: 38,739, 28.79%

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

Prop C - Require public hearings before submitting ballot measures

YES: 94,625, 68.19%
NO: 44,148, 31.81%

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

Prop D - Library Revenue Bonds on Budget

YES 105,032, 74.48%
NO: 35,986, 25.52%

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

Prop E - Question Time

YES: 68,419, 48.60%
NO: 72,354, 51.40%

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

Prop F - Airport Cop Retirement

YES: 68,044, 51.54%
NO: 63,985, 48.46%

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

Prop G - Golden Gate Park horse stables matching fund

YES 76,255, 55.39%
NO: 61,406, 44.61%

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

Prop H - Parkacoplypse? Not now!

YES: 46,558, 33.05%
NO: 94,314, 66.95%

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

Prop I - Small Business

YES: 80,804, 59.13%
NO: 55,844, 40.87%

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

Prop J - Free WiFi

YES: 86,402, 62.26%
NO: 52,373, 37.74%

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

Prop K - Advertising in Public Space

YES: 86,197, 61.84%
NO: 53,191, 38.16%

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

Comparisons

Comparison maps are presentations of two maps that cycle in animation so that one might compare results. When a precinct or neighborhood flashes from cold to warm, that indicates a neighborhood flips its position between the two measures. Soon, I'll learn how to label the maps easily, until then, accompanying text indicates which map is which measure based on results.

Workforce Housing compared to Parkopalypse: Prop J (Workforce Housing, Mar, 2004) cooler, Prop H (Parkopalypse, Nov 2007) fared better because there are some warm spots.

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

A Tale of Two Question Times, Two Electorates - 2006 Prop I vs. 2007 Prop E

District Eight and Potrero key to covering Newsom's vulnerabilities.

Prop I first, Prop E Second. You do the math.

See how the Surfer and Hansen strips vote progressive unwaveringly just as the D2 strip asserts its class interests irrespective, just as D7 support withers. See how the east SOMA condo dwellers respond to red flags.

What is remarkable here is that Prop E sailed through in Districts 10 and 11 and didn't do half bad in D4, which are traditionally not progressive strongholds. D3 support is strained but solid. Could the Mayor's focus on service delivery to his white base to the exclusion of districts that supported him in 2003 have almost cost him his face?

Note that white voters rode to Newsom's rescue here, as communities of color in D4, the Western Addition, Chinatown, D11 and Bayview/Hunters Point, and, of course, The Mission, supported Prop E.

The warmer map is Prop I, the cooler map is Prop E

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

Win versus Loss

10 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 100

When we do well versus when we fall short:

Prop A vs. Prop E

Note the differences where progressives are susecptible to sway. The northern margin between D8 and D5 is a stark contrast. Looks like D4 is cooler on MUNIreform than on Question time. Maybe the MUNI plagued district figures the best way towards MUNI reform might involve questioning the Mayor on television.

A is in warmer colors and wins, E is in cooler colors and loses.

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