San Francisco November 2006
Election Results Mapping

January 8, 2007

Over the past week, I've had breakthrough in automating the generation of election results maps. The following maps are a product of that breakthrough.

Notes

Color Coding

All color coding is the warmer the better from yellow to red, the cooler the worse from green to blue. On pick one races and turnout maps, the color scale runs at 10% gradients. The decile around the 50% mark is exaggerated, demarcated by full yellow and full green at 50%+= 5% respectively.

In multicandidate "first three past the post" races, the scaling is specified on each section so as to capture the differences in support present in the data.

All maps are based on percentage of votes cast in that race in that precinct.

Turnout

For supervisor races turnout, turnout is the pecentage of voters who voted for supervisor at the precinct, not total votes cast at the precinct.

Maps generated with open source tools (MapServer mapscript,postgis,postgres,perl,gifsicle,gimp,debian linux) and custom code.

Free for nonprofit use.

Rights reserved for personal or corporate gain use.

Turnout

Absolute Scale:

10%

<=50

100%

District Supervisor

The color scales here are adjusted to maximize contrast between candidates to identify areas of relative strength.

District 4, First Place Votes

Each gradient represents 3% of the vote

Ed Jew

Ron Dudum

Jaynry Mak

Doug Chan

D4 Supe Race Turnout, absolute scale

District 6, First Place Votes

Each gradient represents 6% of the vote

Chris Daly

Rob Black

D6 Supe Race Turnout, absolute scale

District 8, First Place Votes

Each gradient represents 7% of the vote

Bevan Dufty

Alix Rosenthal

D8 Supe Race Turnout, absolute scale

District 10, First Place Votes

Each gradient represents 8% of the vote

Sophie Maxwell

D10 Supe Race Turnout, absolute scale

Multiseat Elections

Scale:

24%

Board Of Education

MEMBER, BOARD OF EDUCATION
VOTE FOR 3
JANE KIM. . . . . . . . . . . 66,728 14.15
HYDRA MENDOZA . . . . . . . . . 61,214 12.99
KIM-SHREE MAUFAS . . . . . . . . 51,689 10.96

Jane Kim

Jane performs strong citywide. Progressive votes progressive and APA votes APA. That, with a qualified talented candidate and a seasoned field team is a winning combination.

You just can't beat energetic kids on the streets campaigning for a BOE candidate.

Hyrda Mendoza

Hydra does particularly well at the heights and D11 as well as in D10 and the D2 Rich Strip along Lake (See John and Johnnie for a discussion of Strips). She holds her own citywide except in D4 and D3.

Kim-Shree Maufas

Kim-Shree delivers classic progressive donut hole turnout with support from D10 and BV/HP to put her in the winner's circle.

Jane and Hydra

A tale of two cities...

2.5%

7.5

12.5

17.5

22.5

27.5

30%

Community College Board

MEMBER, COMMUNITY COLLEGE BOARD
VOTE FOR 3
ANITA GRIER. . . . . . . . . . 103,125 25.56
LAWRENCE WONG . . . . . . . . . 88,789 22.00
JOHN RIZZO . . . . . . . . . . 68,440 16.96
JOHNNIE CARTER. . . . . . . . . 68,088 16.87

John Rizzo

John demonstrates a broad appeal, expanding out from a solid base in the progressive strongholds most notably into D11. John has a presence in D4, D3, D2 and D1, and strong support in Potrero.

Bruce Wolfe

Bruce also does not get creamed anywhere except for D7 and the Marina citywide, but did not develop enough strength to compete.

Johnnie Carter

John and Johnnie

Not so different from Jane and Hydra. Only 352 votes separate the two but almost each one comes from a different place. This map illustrates the Three Strips: Surfer Strip in D4 is a largely rental area that votes progressive. Rich Strip along Lake Street nestled between the Richmond and Presidio is an extension of D2 into D1. Note that these two Strips are bellweathers for prog versus mod. These two Strips are blinking like a christmas tree from cold to warm as the image cycles. The difference is as strong as a winner-take-all two candidate race divided along ideological lines.

The other Strip is the Hansen Strip that runs along the Valencia corridor and the border of D8 and both D6 and D9. It was intended to be a progressive enclave carved out of the Mission and added to D8 in 2002 in order to boost Eileen Hansen's prospects, countering the more moderate Castro heights. What is interesting here is that both Rizzo and Carter do well in the Hansen Strip as it stays warm even though the more partisan and moderate Castro heights and Mission cleave ideologically and blink.

Jane Kim and Hydra Mendoza likewise both do well in the Hansen Strip. Perhaps progressive lesbians support both progressives and relatively innocuous moderate candidates of color?

BART

Scale:

10%

<=50

100%

BART DIRECTOR - BART DIST. 8
VOTE FOR 1
JAMES FANG . . . . . . . . . . 47,908 59.70
EMILY DEANNA DRENNEN. . . . . . . 31,929 39.79

Emily Drennan

What can you say when the local Democratic and Labor power brokers decide to back a Republican instead of a progressive bisexual woman who happens to be a Green?

James Fang

Your map would look like this too if your family owned a local newspaper.

Congressional District 8

U.S. REPRESENTATIVE DIST. 8
VOTE FOR 1
NANCY PELOSI (DEM) . . . . . . . 148,435 80.27
MIKE DENUNZIO (REP) . . . . . . . 19,800 10.71
KRISSY KEEFER (GRN) . . . . . . . 13,653 7.38

Krissy Keefer

This is what happens when your opponent is deemed speaker-designate in mid-Septembebr.

Nancy Pelosi

Mike Denunzio

Gain turned up to 3% per gradient to flesh out most conservative precincts.

Assembly District 12

MEMBER, STATE ASSEMBLY DIST. 12
VOTE FOR 1
FIONA MA (DEM). . . . . . . . . 64,725 70.31
HOWARD EPSTEIN (REP). . . . . . . 14,777 16.05
BARRY HERMANSON (GRN) . . . . . . 12,382 13.45
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 176 .19

Barry Hermanson

Gain turned up to identify possible progressive opportunity sites.

Fiona Ma

Howard Epstein

Gain turned up to flesh out the right wingers.

Local Props

Scale:

10%

<=50

100%

School Bond

MEASURE A
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 171,236 73.85
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 60,640 26.15

Needed 55%, sailed through.

Allowing Members of Boards and Commissions to Participate in Meetings by Teleconference due to Pregnancy and Related Conditions; Adoption of Parental Leave Policies

MEASURE B
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 164,166 72.22
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 63,157 27.78

Noncontroversial.

Setting Salaries of Certain Local Elected Officials

MEASURE C
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 140,561 63.33
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 81,396 36.67

Noncontroversial.

Disclosure of Private Information

MEASURE D
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 143,020 64.35
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 79,230 35.65

Noncontroversial.

Parking Tax Ordinance

MEASURE E
VOTE FOR 1
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 151,628 67.23
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 73,922 32.77

No campaign, got creamed.

Paid Sick Leave Ordinance

MEASURE F
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 120,916 52.93
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 107,541 47.07

Progressive core with expansion to D1, D3, D4, D10 and D11. Turnout tells the story here, how Prop F could win in so many precincts but with so few votes that a small number of high turnout NO precincts nudged Prop F uncomfortably close to 50%.

Limitations on Formula Retail Stores

MEASURE G
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 125,728 58.19
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 90,353 41.81

Progressive core with expansion to D1, D3, D10 and D11.

Relocation Assistance for No Fault Tenant Removal

MEASURE H
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 120,916 52.93
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 107,541 47.07

Strong support at the progressive core with expansions to Chinatown, Surfer Strip, Bayview/Hunters Point and SF State.

Adopting a Policy that the Mayor Appear Monthly at a Board of Supervisors Meeting

MEASURE I
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 126,023 56.36
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 97,567 43.64

A big win for a sleeper campaign. Similar conservative opposition as to Prop H. Now let's see the fireworks as the Mayor, who apparently has 80% approval ratings in the public opnion polls tries to ignore Prop I as merely a public opinion poll.

Adopting a Policy Calling for the Impeachment of President Bush and Vice President Cheney

MEASURE J
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 133,042 58.53
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 94,282 41.47

Now we know where the Republicans live.

Adopting a Policy Relating to the Housing Needs of Seniors and Disabled Adults

MEASURE K
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 161,684 71.30
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 65,073 28.70

No brainer.

State Props

Scale:

10%

<=50

100%

1A : Transportation Funding Protection. Legislative Constitutional Amendment.

STATE PROP 1A
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 160,872 68.42
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,243 31.58

1B : Highway Safety, Traffic Reduction, Air Quality, and Port Security Bond Act of 2006.

STATE PROP 1B
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 152,620 64.75
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 83,073 35.25

1C : Housing and Emergency Shelter Trust Fund Act of 2006.

STATE PROP 1C
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 172,112 72.59
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 64,999 27.41

Where do ya think we have a housing crisis?

1D : Kindergarten-University Public Education Facilities Bond Act of 2006.

STATE PROP 1D
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 172,869 72.83
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 64,478 27.17

1E : Disaster Preparedness and Flood Prevention Bond Act of 2006.

STATE PROP 1E
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 177,324 76.02
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 55,940 23.98

83 : Sex Offenders. Sexually Violent Predators. Punishment, Residence Restrictions and Monitoring. Initiative Statute.

STATE PROP 83
VOTE FOR 1
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 122,814 52.43
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 111,423 47.57

LGBT know what its like to be on the receiving end of a sex panic witch hunt.

84 : Water Quality, Safety and Supply. Flood Control. Natural Resource Protection. Park Improvements. Bonds. Initiative Statute.

STATE PROP 84
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 167,818 72.15
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 64,784 27.85

85 : Waiting Period and Parental Notification Before Termination of Minor's Pregnancy. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

STATE PROP 85
VOTE FOR 1
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 181,347 76.28
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 56,379 23.72

What can we say?

86 : Tax on Cigarettes. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.

STATE PROP 86
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 162,155 67.33
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 78,683 32.67

87 : Alternative Energy. Research, Production, Incentives. Tax on California Oil Producers. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.

STATE PROP 87
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 173,892 71.59
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 68,999 28.41

88 : Education Funding. Real Property Parcel Tax. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.

STATE PROP 88
VOTE FOR 1
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 147,537 62.39
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 88,931 37.61

Parcel taxes are regressive and nonviable.

89 : Political Campaigns. Public Financing. Corporate Tax Increase. Campaign Contribution and Expenditure Limits. Initiative Statute.

STATE PROP 89
VOTE FOR 1
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 120,414 51.57
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 113,075 48.43

90 : Government Acquisition, Regulation of Private Property. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

STATE PROP 90
VOTE FOR 1
NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 165,769 70.95
YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 67,865 29.05

San Franciscans like our zoning.

####

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San Francisco November 2006 Election Results Mapping

January 8, 2007

Contents:

Notes

Color Coding

Turnout

Turnout

District Supervisor

District 4, First Place Votes

Ed Jew

Ron Dudum

Jaynry Mak

Doug Chan

D4 Supe Race Turnout, absolute scale

District 6, First Place Votes

Chris Daly

Rob Black

D6 Supe Race Turnout, absolute scale

District 8, First Place Votes

Bevan Dufty

Alix Rosenthal

D8 Supe Race Turnout, absolute scale

District 10, First Place Votes

Sophie Maxwell

D10 Supe Race Turnout, absolute scale

Multiseat Elections

Board Of Education

Jane Kim

Hyrda Mendoza

Kim-Shree Maufas

Jane and Hydra

Community College Board

John Rizzo

Bruce Wolfe

Johnnie Carter

John and Johnnie

BART

Emily Drennan

James Fang

Congressional District 8

Krissy Keefer

Nancy Pelosi

Mike Denunzio

Assembly District 12

Barry Hermanson

Fiona Ma

Howard Epstein

Local Props

School Bond

Allowing Members of Boards and Commissions to Participate in Meetings by Teleconference due to Pregnancy and Related Conditions; Adoption of Parental Leave Policies

Setting Salaries of Certain Local Elected Officials

Disclosure of Private Information

Parking Tax Ordinance

Paid Sick Leave Ordinance

Limitations on Formula Retail Stores

Relocation Assistance for No Fault Tenant Removal

Adopting a Policy that the Mayor Appear Monthly at a Board of Supervisors Meeting

Adopting a Policy Calling for the Impeachment of President Bush and Vice President Cheney

Adopting a Policy Relating to the Housing Needs of Seniors and Disabled Adults

State Props

1A : Transportation Funding Protection. Legislative Constitutional Amendment.

1B : Highway Safety, Traffic Reduction, Air Quality, and Port Security Bond Act of 2006.

1C : Housing and Emergency Shelter Trust Fund Act of 2006.

1D : Kindergarten-University Public Education Facilities Bond Act of 2006.

1E : Disaster Preparedness and Flood Prevention Bond Act of 2006.

83 : Sex Offenders. Sexually Violent Predators. Punishment, Residence Restrictions and Monitoring. Initiative Statute.

84 : Water Quality, Safety and Supply. Flood Control. Natural Resource Protection. Park Improvements. Bonds. Initiative Statute.

85 : Waiting Period and Parental Notification Before Termination of Minor's Pregnancy. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

86 : Tax on Cigarettes. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.

87 : Alternative Energy. Research, Production, Incentives. Tax on California Oil Producers. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.

88 : Education Funding. Real Property Parcel Tax. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.

89 : Political Campaigns. Public Financing. Corporate Tax Increase. Campaign Contribution and Expenditure Limits. Initiative Statute.

90 : Government Acquisition, Regulation of Private Property. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

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San Francisco November 2006
Election Results Mapping