From David Binder Research
Editor’s Note: Poll commissioned by Assemblymember Mark Leno.
March 1, 2008
In a survey conducted between February 17th and 21st with 500 likely Democratic primary voters in Senate District 3, it becomes apparent that Joe Nation’s entry into the race has made the contest a wide-open competition with Assemblyman Mark Leno and former Assemblyman Joe Nation leading the field.
Joe Nation
The results also show incumbent State Senator Carole Migden in a surprisingly weak and consistent 3rd place position, pulling in just 17 percent of the vote at this time. Migden maintains this 17 percent and does not get within 10 percent of the contest leader both before and after candidate information is provided.
After balanced candidate information that provided basic biographical details and equal critiques of each candidate, Assemblyman Mark Leno increases his support by 3 percent, while Nation’s support declines 3 percent and Migden’s remains unchanged. After information, Leno holds the lead in this race.
San Francisco Police Commissioner Joe Alioto Veronese,
incumbent Senator Carole Migden,
and Assemblymember Mark Leno.
Migden’s vote share remains constant at 17 percent, suggesting the challenge the incumbent faces in winning over new support in this race.
|
MIGDEN |
LENO |
VERONESE |
NATION |
UNDECIDED |
|
| Initial Ask |
17 |
24 |
7 |
27 |
25 |
| After Candidate Information |
17 |
27 |
10 |
24 |
22 |
| CHANGE |
+0 |
+3 |
+3 |
-3 |
-3 |
Luke Thomas
Luke Thomas is a former software developer and computer consultant who proudly hails from London, England. In 2001, Thomas took a yearlong sabbatical to travel and develop a photographic portfolio. Upon his return to the US, Thomas studied photojournalism to pursue a career in journalism. In 2004, Thomas worked for several neighborhood newspapers in San Francisco before accepting a partnership agreement with the SanFranciscoSentinel.com, a news website formerly covering local, state and national politics. In September 2006, Thomas launched FogCityJournal.com. The BBC, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox News, New York Times, Der Spiegel, San Francisco Chronicle, San Francisco Magazine, 7x7, San Francisco Examiner, San Francisco Bay Guardian and the San Francisco Weekly, among other publications and news outlets, have published his work. Thomas is a member of the Freelance Unit of the Pacific Media Workers Guild, TNG-CWA Local 39521 and is a member of the Society of Professional Journalists.
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March 10, 2008 at 6:29 am
I don’t know about most people but I’m tired of politicians who pick fights, chase cameras, spend all their time looking for headlines, and in general are not very civil. In this race, there is only one candidate who deserves my vote and that’s Joe Nation. He works hard, knows Sacramento, and is dedicated to the issues we care about. Go Joe!
March 6, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Nation is counting on a Sonoma pity vote. He thinks San Rafael, his political home town, let him down a couple years ago, so he rented a place in Sonoma. He expects a poor turnout in San Rafael on account of what happened with Woolsey.
I wish he were deeper. He says he’s a “climate expert”. What kind of a climate? He says he’s with a thing called “Environ, an international firm”. Which nations? When was it formed? What did he do?
March 3, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Editor: Thanks for adding the note about who commissioned the poll.
Anyone know when the poll Joe Nation funded (referred to in the comment above) was conducted?
March 2, 2008 at 11:28 am
I’ve heard that the “negative” information given about Mark Leno was only that he was too focused on gay marriage. I didn’t realize that was a negative (particularly in the Bay Area!!!). Apparently, Migden had a boatload of negatives thrown her way, so the numbers are not surprising. This is an old campaign trick and Leno should be ashamed of himself. Joe Nation recently funded a poll with the usual Leno, anti-woman trash talking and it showed Migden leading with Nation close behind. The truth is that Mark Leno has never moved up despite a year-long head start. The race is between Migden and Nation. If anything, Leno is putting a safe LGBT seat at risk by continuing to run.
March 2, 2008 at 11:12 am
Could we know what the “balanced candidate information that provided basic biographical details and equal critiques of each candidate” was?
Thank you.
March 1, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Mark Leno voted for Arnold Schwarzenegger’s $7.7 billion new prison construction legislation, which was $8.8 billioo when one counted county matching funds.
Joe Veronese told me in person, after a Police Commission said, at the time,
that he was “glad the governor was tkaing the issue in hand.”
Carole Migden voted against the $8.8 billion in new prison construction, which seems to have been defeated in the courts, unless I missed something.
Some issues, like new California prisons and the Global War on Terror, make it easy to decide how to vote—or not to vote at all—which is often the best option.
Americans should have the right to “vote blanche” or none of the above. However, in this case, i would still vote for Carole Migden. —Ann Garrison