Big One to strike within 30 years

By Jason Bennert

April 14, 2008

A major earthquake, the size of the 1994 Northridge quake or larger, is almost certain to hit California in the next 30 years, according to a new forecast released today by a group of scientific groups including the U.S. Geological Survey.

The group is predicting a more than 99 percent chance that a 6.7 or larger temblor will strike somewhere in the state during the next 30 years. Bay Area residents can take minimal comfort in the fact that the big shake is slightly more likely to hit Southern California than the northern half of the state.

“This new, comprehensive forecast advances our understanding of earthquakes and pulls together existing research with new techniques and data. Planners, decision makers and California residents can use this information to improve public safety and mitigate damage before the next destructive earthquake occurs,” USGS geophysicist and group lead scientist Ned Field said in a statement.

According to the forecast, a 6.7 or larger earthquake is 67 percent likely to hit the greater Los Angeles area in the next 30 years. The probability for the San Francisco Bay Area is 63 percent.

The 1994 Northridge quake that struck the Los Angeles area was a 6.7. The 1989 Loma Prieta quake that struck Northern California and disrupted the World Series was a 6.9.

In addition to the U.S. Geological Survey, the other organizations contributing to the forecast included the California Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center.

CONTACT: Leslie Gordon, USGS, (650) 329-4006

FCJ Editor

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